"Uncertainty has arisen regarding future developments," stated the UN Secretary-General about global trade and Trump.
At the beginning of November, the world's attention was focused on the elections in the United States, the results of which will see Donald Trump become the next president of the country in January 2025. A proponent of protectionism, Trump implemented a series of tariffs and trade restrictions during his previous term in the White House and promised to do the same for all goods imported into America during his campaign.
One such change was the 25% tariff on imported steel, including from Ukraine, introduced in 2018. It was only with the onset of the large-scale war that President Joe Biden's administration lifted it for Ukrainian exporters.
The return of Trump to power brings only uncertainty, according to John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). He notes that while the next U.S. president is not the biggest supporter of the World Trade Organization, it is too early for Ukraine to have pessimistic expectations.
Denton regularly visits Ukraine. Notably, he contributed to the unblocking of Black Sea ports for grain exports in 2022. The EП spoke with the ICC Secretary General during his visit to Kyiv about what Ukrainian businesses can expect from the EU and the U.S., what is lacking in Ukrainian trade diplomacy, and how to return containers to Ukrainian ports.
— We are currently on the path to European integration, so what has changed, and has it changed enough in Ukraine's trade policy in the course of aligning with European standards over the past years?
— I believe this work is ongoing. You take Ukraine in the middle of a war and try to integrate it with a functioning European market with standards effective for developed economies. And the Ukrainian economy is not only at war but also trying to bridge the gap to the economic indicators of the European market.
There is incredible dynamism in political circles in understanding this gap and in the real actions aimed at raising standards and aligning them with European ones.
Ukraine has much to offer the global world in technology and agribusiness. We are witnessing increasing interest in cooperation, for example, with the International Chamber of Commerce regarding the digitization of several processes that simplify cross-border trade.
We are working with the Ukrainian government on digitized phytosanitary certificates eFITO (a document confirming the safety of plant-based products – EП), which are necessary for exports to Europe (in the EU – EП).
— Can you provide some examples of achievements in trade policy and perhaps gaps that Ukraine should focus on?
— Trade is also about investments, so we are looking at the ongoing work in the area of investment policy, as investments are necessary for economic growth, and not just state or donor investments. You need to create an environment where foreign private investors will want to invest. The challenge lies in the risk. Concerns about the rule of law, corruption, and other similar issues are also a challenge.
We see, especially in the investment sector, that the Ukrainian government is taking many steps to address investors’ concerns in these areas. Transparency helps in this regard, and I see quite significant changes in the last few years. We also notice openness in matters of the rule of law.
One of the barriers for foreign investors is concerns about access to the legal system and its speed. Therefore, we proposed to involve the ICC Arbitration Court as a full partner to develop Ukrainian investments, offering access to our arbitration court for foreign investors coming to Ukraine.
Regarding trade policy, we see that the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce understands the strategic importance of opening new markets, and the government is also aware of this now.
— How will the ICC arbitration court operate in Ukraine?
— Access to the ICC arbitration court is provided based on service agreements. It works like this: in the contract that a company enters into with an investor, there is a separate provision stating that the investor will have access to arbitration as a means of dispute resolution. This is one of those things they will want to see in agreements.
Interestingly, in Argentina, which is undergoing quite significant economic transformations, access to arbitration is legally enshrined as a key element for investment.
— You mention that there are many promising external markets. What are these markets?
— I think many markets are becoming accessible to Ukrainian businesses due to your competitive advantages. However, it is necessary to determine where the greatest interest and potential consumption lie.
Once, we brought a delegation of Ukrainian businesses to Colombia for the largest business gathering in Latin America and gave them the opportunity not only to interact but also to present. At that time, they realized that the biggest issue was not the quality of what they were offering but that no one knew they were offering it. Ukraine needs to become recognizable. Part of business is visibility and building relationships. This takes time.
Clearly, agriculture is a very important sector. Ukraine is incredibly competitive in the agribusiness sector, not only in products but also in the technologies that support it. Such technologies will be interesting not only in Latin America but also in other developing countries, including Africa and some parts of Asia.
However, a lack of awareness complicates this issue. We are currently gathering another large delegation and have invited the Minister of Agrarian Policy to travel with us and speak at the largest gathering of African businesses that we are organizing in Nairobi, Kenya, in April 2025. This is also a way to build opportunities here.
On both river and sea. Ukraine is returning container shipping by vessels. What does this mean for the economy?
— We see that trade restrictions are returning. Donald Trump will soon be the president of the U.S., and he is known for his inclination towards protectionism and trade restrictions. What should we expect? How will this affect Ukraine's ability to export?
— It is in Ukraine's national interest to maintain a strong multilateral trading system, as access to it will allow diversifying its export channels and opportunities. The risk currently lies not in any immediate and painful changes on the very first day of President Trump's election. It lies in the uncertainty surrounding what will actually happen.
Some things are known: tariffs will be raised on China, he has talked about raising tariffs in other areas as well. You need to look at what exactly you are exporting and whether those goods will be subject to such tariffs. It is too early to say definitively. We can only say with certainty that uncertainty has emerged regarding what will happen.
We can look at the last Trump administration. Yes, there was a redirection of some value-added chains, but to a lesser extent than everyone expected. This time may be different. At this moment, markets are positively inclined and there are positive changes amid the Trump administration's elections.
It is unlikely that the new Trump administration will be "cheering" for the World Trade Organization, but that does not mean it will not be interested in an effective and functioning multilateral trading system. The WTO is just a place where you can manage such a system.
As the ICC, we will be able to keep the multilateral trading system operational, for example, by joining regional agreements and ensuring market access agreements, but Ukraine must have a strong and functioning multilateral trading system.
— Could we face new trade restrictions from the EU?
— I don’t know. We do not know the final configuration of the new European Commission, as this is still subject to much discussion and debate in Parliament.
With the growth of trade,