Three years of Russian strikes. How is Ukraine's energy sector coping with yet another winter?

During this time, the industry has endured dozens of large-scale attacks, the occupation of 18 gigawatts of generation capacity, and the destruction or damage of over 10 gigawatts more. For comparison, this is equivalent to the energy consumption of countries like the Netherlands or Finland.

On a positive note, experts' forecasts of "20 hours without electricity per day" did not come true. This weekend marks the beginning of calendar spring, and meteorologists are predicting warmer weather.

On the downside, the threat of new attacks has not disappeared, and the heating season in Ukraine does not end on March 1. At best, there is still a month left until its conclusion, and possibly even longer.

The situation in the energy and gas sectors remains extremely challenging; however, a catastrophe or apocalypse is certainly not on the horizon. How did we manage to withstand?

What’s happening with electricity

Since October 2022, the Russian army has launched over a thousand strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Hundreds of "Shahed" drones and dozens of missiles continue to regularly target Ukrainian power plants and distribution networks across various regions.

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Despite the constant attacks and apocalyptic predictions from energy experts and foreign media about "20 hours without electricity per day," Ukraine is getting through this winter relatively steadily.

Even during the February drop in temperatures, the energy system managed to avoid large-scale consumer outages. Restrictions for industry and businesses became routine in the last month of winter, but the general population hardly felt this. Unless we consider the short-term emergency outages in certain regions due to enemy shelling and freezing weather.

What helped avoid lengthy outages? Industry experts believe that a combination of several factors played a role.

Firstly, Ukraine prepared for the heating season. According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, around 4 GW of capacity from damaged thermal and hydroelectric power plants was restored in 2024.

Secondly, air defense has improved, which was notably felt during most of the recent attacks. However, this is still not enough.

As President Volodymyr Zelensky noted, Ukraine needs another 20 Patriot systems for complete energy protection. "If we do not protect the distribution systems of nuclear power plants, we could lose another 4-5 GW of generation," he emphasized. In such a scenario, outages of 20 hours a day would be unavoidable.

Thirdly, the predominantly favorable weather has been on the side of Ukrainians for the third consecutive year. Although in February, temperatures in some regions dropped to "minus" 20 degrees Celsius, these periods were short-lived. Consumers immediately felt the impact due to restrictions on industry and businesses, as well as brief emergency outages in several regions.

An important factor in getting through the winter, as in previous years, remains the import of electricity from EU countries. Since December 1, 2024, ENTSO-E has increased import capacity from 1700 MW to 2100 MW.

Additionally, Ukraine can reliably receive up to 250 MW in emergency assistance if needed.

Last year, our country increased electricity imports more than fivefold - to 4.4 million MWh. The majority came from Hungary (39%), Slovakia (23%), and Romania (18%).

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Despite this, for most of this winter, the import capabilities from the EU were utilized at less than half. Thus, a certain margin of safety remained.

All these factors combined allowed the Ukrainian energy system to remain intact and avoid lengthy consumer outages.

Gas market: no catastrophe expected

Although Ukraine's gas facilities have been under enemy fire almost since the first day of the full-scale war, they suffered the most destruction in 2024-2025. Initially, the enemy systematically attacked gas storage facilities in the west of the country, and then shifted to attacks on extraction sites in the east and center.

Concentrated strikes on the "underground" facilities began in the spring of 2024. Sources in the gas market identified two primary objectives of the Russian bombardments.

The first is to disrupt Ukraine's preparation for the heating season by making it impossible to pump gas into storage.

The second is to intimidate foreign traders into abandoning gas storage in Ukraine. Unfortunately, the enemy succeeded in this regard. Whereas prior to the last autumn-winter period, non-residents held 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukrainian storage, in 2024 this volume has dwindled to almost zero.

After the New Year, attacks on Ukrainian gas extraction facilities significantly intensified. During this time, the enemy repeatedly struck "Naftogaz" facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. In the latter, the gas extraction facility of DTEK, owned by Rinat Akhmetov, was also affected. As is known, the lion's share of domestic gas production is located in these two regions.

As a result of these attacks, Ukraine lost about 40% of its own gas production. Will there be enough gas until the end of the heating season considering such severe consequences? According to sources in the gas industry, everything will depend on air temperature, production volumes, and consumption.

Moreover, to cover the deficit arising from the recent attacks in February-March, Ukraine plans to additionally import about 800 million cubic meters of gas. However, this resource will come at a significant premium since gas prices in the EU are currently consistently above $500 per thousand cubic meters, whereas in the summer they fluctuated around $300-350.

Experts believe that under the current circumstances, there should be enough gas to last until the end of the heating season. However, if temperatures drop significantly, consumption increases, and further destruction occurs, additional measures will need to be taken. These may include limiting consumption by industry or closing schools and kindergartens.

It is also likely that this heating season will end earlier. If before the war it typically concluded on April 15, this year, in an effort to conserve fuel, heating may be turned off closer to the end of March.

The main point is that no gas outage schedules, which the enemy actively spreads misinformation about, threaten Ukraine. There will be no catastrophe or apocalypse in the gas sector.

Fuel market: stability prevails

If the targeted destruction of energy infrastructure began in the fall of 2022, attacks on oil refineries and fuel depots started from the very first day of the invasion.

Due to the immediate loss of fuel supplies from Russia and Belarus, the Ukrainian oil products market had to urgently find replacements for over 90% of diesel imports and about 50% of gasoline.

In May 2022, Ukraine faced a massive crisis with kilometers-long queues at gas stations and restrictions of 10-20 liters of fuel per tank. However, in an incredibly short time, the country completely redirected its supplies from EU countries.

Initially, fuel was transported at any price, and once the crisis was overcome, networks began to lower prices. Eventually, the situation stabilized, and on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, the oil products market appears to be the most secure.

"Indeed, the oil products segment of the energy market looks the most stable today. We don't have a shortage; rather, we have a permanent surplus of fuel in the market. This is especially noticeable in the wholesale segment, where there has