Satellite blackmail: what happens if Starlink is shut down in Ukraine?

The increased use of drones has significantly expedited the process of identifying and targeting objectives, while Starlink has become critically important for command decisions. It has opened up new capabilities for the Ukrainian army in troop management, planning, and execution of operations.

However, this technology is directly linked to Elon Musk's name, which is why Ukraine encountered its first issues with terminal operations as early as autumn 2022. The culmination of all these stories was the negotiations regarding rare earth metals, where the potential shutdown of Starlink for Ukrainian users unexpectedly emerged as one of the leverage points of the Trump administration against the Ukrainian government.

Musk himself dismisses the allegations, stating that this information is not accurate. Nonetheless, such signals raise the question: what would happen if one day Starlink stopped functioning in Ukraine? And how can the Defense Forces prepare for this possibility?

How Many Starlink Terminals Are in Ukraine

The first Starlink terminals began arriving in Ukraine just a few days after the full-scale invasion started. On February 26, 2022, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov reached out to Elon Musk via Twitter, requesting to provide the country with satellite internet.

Musk, who was actively supporting Ukraine at that time and even challenged Putin to a duel, promptly responded to the request. On February 28, SpaceX sent the first 500 Starlink terminals.

Over time, the number of terminals began to grow rapidly. Throughout the three years of war, the supply was carried out through several channels:

• through partner countries' governments;
• state institutions;
• volunteer and charitable organizations;
• private initiatives.

For instance, in an interview with EP , Polish Minister of Digitalization Krzysztof Gawkowski mentioned that by May 2024, his country had provided Ukraine with 20,000 Starlink terminals.

As of today, the exact number is unknown. In the early months of the war, most of them were delivered centrally through the Ministry of Digital Transformation. By the end of 2023, Fedorov mentioned the figure of 47,000 terminals received through government agreements.

However, now a significant portion of Starlink terminals is also being purchased directly by the military, volunteers, and civilians. The demand for terminals surged particularly in the autumn of 2022 following the initial massive attacks on energy infrastructure, as satellite internet allows for connectivity even in the absence of electricity.

According to estimates by Member of Parliament and member of the Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Oleksandr Fedienko, there may be around 160,000 Starlink modems in Ukraine.

Sergey Beskrestnov, an expert in electronic warfare and communications, head of the "Center for Radio Technologies," noted in a comment to Defense Express that the Defense Forces use up to 100,000 Starlink terminals.

How Starlink Became Critically Important

The Ukrainian military began to actively use Starlink during the battle for Kyiv. The effectiveness of satellite communication was so high that in July 2022, then-Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi appealed to Musk for an additional 8,000 terminals for Ukraine.

"The introduction of Starlink into the Ukrainian army in 2022 was a true game-changer. It was exactly the element we were missing," notes the chairman of the NGO "Aero Reconnaissance," Yaroslav Honchar.

Satellite communication with broadband coverage enabled a mosaic management of troops and improved coordination of small mobile groups, which can have significant tactical and strategic impact, explains Honchar.

According to Honchar, the technology enhances the mobility of command posts, observation groups, and strike units, significantly speeding up military operations management.

Satellite internet also plays a crucial role in the functioning of drones, mobile air defense groups, electronic warfare, and video surveillance systems.

Igor Lutsenko, commander of the UAV operators unit and founder of the Center for Aero Reconnaissance Support notes that Starlink is now more important than many types of weapons received from Washington. In his opinion, this technology is even more significant than individual air defense systems or HIMARS.

In an interview with POLITICO, Minister Fedorov pointed out that even if there is no electricity or internet in some areas, it is possible to restore any communication via generators using Starlink.

Ultimately, during the de-occupation of Kharkiv and Kherson regions, it was Starlink that allowed local residents to access the internet in the first hours after the return of Ukrainian forces.

Musk's Transformation and Starlink's Operational Issues in Ukraine

In September 2022, SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon requesting funding for Starlink in Ukraine. According to the company's calculations, over $120 million was needed for this purpose by the end of that year, and about $400 million for 2023.

In the same month, Ukraine applied maritime drones against Russian vessels in the Sevastopol Bay for the first time, but at a distance of 70 km from the target, communication with them was lost. It turned out that at Musk's request, Starlink was disabled by the company, fearing escalation of the conflict. Efforts to persuade the billionaire to change his decision were unsuccessful, leading Ukrainian forces to modify the drones.

Around this time, Musk's worldview began to shift. He presented his "peace plan," stated that "Russians predominantly live" in the South and East of Ukraine, and no longer viewed Putin as absolute evil, as he had in February 2022.

At the same time, Ukrainian servicemen repeatedly noticed disruptions in the technology's operation. According to Honchar, such issues occurred during the de-occupation of Kherson: when Ukrainian forces advanced towards the regional center, Starlink would stop working. It became necessary to urgently contact SpaceX with explanations that Ukrainian troops were already present in that area.

In February 2023, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell stated that the company had limited the use of Starlink with drones, as this technology was never intended for weapon use.

Later, in February 2024, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense confirmed that Russians were also using Starlink on the front lines. Musk denied this, stating that the company had never sold terminals to Russia either directly or indirectly.

According to Reuters, the possibility of shutting down Starlink for Ukraine was discussed during negotiations among representatives of Donald Trump's administration regarding the rare earth metal agreement. This issue was raised again during a meeting between Keith Kellogg, the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, and Zelensky.

This information triggered an international response. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski stated that shutting down terminals funded by Poland is impossible. He emphasized that "no one can terminate a business contract for a commercial service of which Poland is a party."

Ultimately, Musk himself rejected the Reuters report, stating that "journalists are lying." However, Poland's position, which finances the operation of a significant number of terminals in Ukraine, is one of the main reasons why SpaceX is unlikely to take such a step.

Firstly, SpaceX is a private company, and complying with state demands to pressure another country during negotiations seems absurd. Secondly, according to Fedorov, the internet from Starlink is fully funded by Western donors. This supports Gawkowski's arguments regarding business contracts, and additionally, according to Musk himself, the company earns tens of millions of dollars monthly for its terminal operations in Ukraine.