Sector without gas: Why did Putin create an energy crisis in Transnistria?

Moscow is playing a very dangerous card in the so-called Transnistria, an unrecognized part of Moldova located on the left bank of the Dniester River, controlled by pro-Russian separatists.

The Kremlin's suspension of gas supplies since January 1 has already led to restrictions in gas supply, water and heating, rolling blackouts, and a complete halt of industrial activity in the region.

On the right bank of the Dniester, however, President Maia Sandu's government has managed to stabilize the situation: there is enough gas here until March 2025, and electricity needs are currently being met through imports from Romania.

However, with worsening weather, power outages across Moldova are quite possible. In contrast, the situation in Transnistria is already dire, where gas and coal reserves are only enough for a few weeks.

How is Transnistria moving closer to a humanitarian disaster each day, and how can the situation be stabilized?

How the energy sectors of Moldova and Transnistria operate

Just a few years ago, the economies of Moldova and unrecognized Transnistria were almost entirely dependent on Russian natural gas.

If Chișinău has managed to completely detach from the Kremlin's "gas needle" over the past three years by shifting to supplies from the European Union, Tiraspol has not even considered alternative sources. This remains true even after the onset of a genuine energy crisis provoked by Moscow.

Due to the unique situation faced by our neighbors, not only gas supply and heating of Transnistrians' homes depended on Russian natural gas, but also electricity for both right and left banks of Moldova.

The crux of the matter is that until the beginning of 2025, 100% of electricity for Transnistria and between 50% to 80% for Moldova was generated by the Moldovan State Regional Power Plant (GRES, with a capacity of 2520 MW) located in the territory of the unrecognized republic. For decades, it operated solely on free Russian gas.

However, the situation changed on January 1, 2025, when Russia completely halted gas supplies to Transnistria.

How they are coping with the crisis

Frankly speaking, both Chișinău and the separatists in Tiraspol were unprepared for the energy crisis provoked by the Kremlin. However, the situation is much more complicated for the latter. But let's take it step by step.

After the cessation of Russian gas supplies, the electricity flows from the Moldovan GRES to the right bank were completely halted, and the plant switched to operating on alternative fuel - coal. However, this is a temporary measure.

The fact is that this power plant operates on anthracite coal, which was brought here as a reserve from Donbas before its occupation by Russia. According to the most optimistic estimates, the reserves will last until the end of January, and there is no physical possibility to deliver additional volumes in a short time.

The same applies to gas. While Moldova has long redirected its supplies from the European Union, Transnistria refuses to do so and still hopes for the Russians. According to officials from the unrecognized republic, the remaining reserves are approximately sufficient for 20 days.

As of January 12, the situation in Moldova is relatively stable, which cannot be said about Transnistria.

By January 1, 2025, the total electricity consumption in Moldova was around 750 MW. Internal production covered up to 200 MW, while the rest was supplied by the aforementioned GRES.

Despite the challenging situation, the Moldovan authorities managed to quickly balance the situation and avoid outages for their consumers. At least for now.

About half of the total electricity consumption in Chișinău is currently met through imports from Romania. The remainder is provided by local thermal power plants, "green" energy sources, and hydropower plants.

However, with worsening weather, limited power outages for the population are quite possible, which the Moldovan authorities have already openly warned the public about.

Why is the Kremlin freezing Transnistria? Details and consequences of Russia's "gas war" against Moldova

In Transnistria, the situation is much more complicated. Since January 1, gas has been turned off in boiler houses, private sectors, and apartment buildings with autonomous heating. Residents of the region are also left without centralized heating and hot water.

The Moldovan GRES has switched to burning coal and significantly reduced electricity production, leading to power outages in the region, which currently last 8 hours a day.

As the cold sets in, the situation there will only worsen, and once the coal and gas reserves are exhausted, it could turn into a humanitarian disaster.

How Ukraine can help

The first area where Ukraine can assist Moldova is through electricity supplies. Of course, this would be limited and not at the expense of its own consumers.

"If we have a deficit, not a single kilowatt will be directed for export. In other words, if there is a deficit, which is a consequence of Russian strikes on the energy sector, there can be no talk of exporting electricity from Ukraine," explained Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.

According to him, export is only possible during surplus periods that may arise during low consumption hours. Meanwhile, during peak consumption hours, to meet the needs of domestic consumers, Ukraine continues to import additional electricity from neighboring EU countries.

The second potential area of assistance to Moldova is gas supplies. However, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to support its neighbor at this time, as the accumulated natural gas before the winter barely suffices for its own needs, and our country will exit the heating season with nearly empty underground storage facilities.

This creates risks not only for getting through this winter but also may lead to problems in preparing for the next heating season. Therefore, if the Ukrainian government can offer any gas assistance to Moldova, it will be quite limited - no more than 1-2 million cubic meters as humanitarian aid. But even discussions about such small volumes are not currently taking place.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, following a conversation with Maia Sandu on January 9, stated that Ukraine is ready to assist Moldova with coal supplies.

Domestic thermal power plants currently have a record coal stock of over 3 million tons, the highest in the last 20 years. Such large volumes have accumulated because Russia has destroyed a significant portion of Ukraine's thermal generation, leaving no place to burn the coal.

What can Ukraine really do to help Moldova if not through coal supplies? According to a source in one of the energy companies, Transnistrian authorities planned several years ago to convert the boilers at the Moldovan GRES to a gas-grade coal, but for some reason, they later abandoned this idea.

"Ukraine has the relevant specialists and extensive experience in conducting such work; this has been done both by the state-owned "Tsentrenergo" and by the private company DTEK. Technically, this task can be solved without problems, and it could be done in about 3-4 months," adds the source.

Even under these circumstances, all Ukraine can do is offer such assistance to Chișinău. And from there, all organizational issues must be resolved with the authorities of the so-called Transnistria.

How the problem might be resolved

Today, there is no doubt that the crisis in Transnistria has been artificially created by Russia. Its goal is to return pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova.

"The Kremlin has deliberately created an energy crisis in Transnistria and plunged the region into cold and darkness. Because in 2025, there will be parliamentary elections in Moldova, and this