New Year staple: How many mandarins does Ukraine purchase and what profits do exporting countries make?
After the transition to the New Julian calendar and the shift of holidays, the citrus season begins earlier: in November, supermarket shelves are already laden with various varieties.
How is the consumption of mandarins changing in Ukraine, and where do they come from? Who in the world sells the most, and who buys the most?
Global Market
Mandarins originate from South Asia. Their homeland is considered to be China, which holds the top position in terms of production volume – 26.9 million tons or 71% of total output in the 2023-2024 season.
However, in terms of export, Spain surpassed China, exporting mandarins worth 1.54 billion dollars to global markets in 2022 (China's export was 726 million dollars). Local farmers offer fresh fruits (mainly "Satsuma" and "Clementine" varieties) from November to May. In 2023, the total value of all citrus fruits exported by Spain reached 3.8 billion dollars.
1 Turkey is a key supplier of mandarins to Central and Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. This country is one of the largest global producers and exporters of these fruits. In the last season, it produced 2.8 million tons, with exports reaching 478 million dollars. The mandarin season in Turkey lasts from October to March.
Turkish mandarins attract buyers with lower prices due to reduced cultivation and labor costs. However, most scandals regarding pesticide use are associated with fruits from Turkey, so the reputation of its mandarins in the markets of Western and Northern Europe is not very good.
The largest African suppliers of mandarins are Egypt and Morocco. The former exports "Merchott," "Fremont," and "Clementine" varieties to the Netherlands, France, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Ukraine.
The largest importer of mandarins is Russia (508 million dollars in 2022). Against the backdrop of issues with international settlements due to sanctions, the terror-sponsoring country initiated barter trade with Pakistan. Russia will supply 15,000 tons of chickpeas and 10,000 tons of lentils in exchange for 15,000 tons of mandarins and 10,000 tons of potatoes.
One of the largest markets for mandarins (507 million dollars) and citrus fruits overall (1.8 billion dollars) is the USA. The demand for these fruits is growing year by year.
2 In 2022, mandarins in the USA began to outpace oranges as the most popular fresh citrus fruit. They are primarily supplied from Chile to the North American market.
"Citrus Eldorado" in Spain is flooded
The Spanish Valencia is referred to as the "Citrus Eldorado" due to its large volumes of cultivation. However, due to devastating floods that claimed the lives of over two hundred people, the supply of mandarins may sharply decline. Local authorities acknowledge that all major fruit-growing regions have been affected.
In Germany, there are concerns about shortages and a sharp rise in prices ahead of Christmas. Currently, fruits from the flood-affected region are hardly arriving there.
"Oranges and mandarins that Germans expect for Christmas may become much more expensive. We can't even estimate how much, as the plantations in Spain are still not cleared, and the damage is still being calculated," explained analyst Mick Knauff.
3 Some roads have been significantly damaged, and important highways are still closed: trucks are stuck in the mud.
Juice as an alternative
In 2024, global prices for orange juice hit a record: over 5 dollars per pound (around 400 UAH per liter). This increase was influenced by news of a poor harvest in Brazil, which accounts for 70% of the world’s total exports.
After extreme heat and drought, trees are suffering from an incurable bacterial disease called citrus greening. According to Rabobank estimates, nearly 40% of plantations in southeastern Brazil are infected with the disease.
The market has been spooked by bleak forecasts regarding an orange harvest drop of a quarter to 232 million boxes. Although futures for orange juice have been rising since 2022, when hurricanes and cold weather devastated hectares of plantations in Florida, the main orange-growing region in the USA.
Typically, juice producers mixed stocks of frozen juice (with a two-year shelf life) with juice from the new harvest. However, supplies have been declining for three consecutive years, leading to depleted stocks of frozen raw materials.
"This is a real crisis. We've never seen anything like this, even during severe frosts and hurricanes," acknowledged the president of the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Producers Association (IFU), Kees Kools. Analyst François Sonneville confirmed: global supplies of orange juice have reached the lowest levels in decades, and consumer demand has fallen as "prices have skyrocketed."
4 According to Kools, a long-term solution to the orange shortage problem may be the production of juice from mandarins, as their trees are considered more resilient to climate change. The IFU is exploring the possibility of changing food norms at the UN level.
The market is already experimenting. In Japan, which typically imports 90% of its oranges and juice from Brazil, the supermarket chain 7-Eleven has started producing mandarin juice. German producers are increasingly mixing mango juice with orange juice.
Sonneville is skeptical about the long-term replacement of oranges with mandarins, as it will incur new transportation costs for the fruits. According to him, beverage producers will have to use lower-quality juice, create mixed juices with apple, mango, or grape, or raise prices.
He does not expect a quick resolution to the problem, as planting new orchards takes a long time and farmers' costs are rising.
Juice producers agree that the increase in costs will be passed on to consumers. "Due to turbulent and uncertain factors in the world and the UK, we had to revise the prices and sizes of our beverage packaging," acknowledged Sarah Baldwin, director of British Purity Soft Drinks.
German Valensina has already reduced bottle sizes from 1 liter to 0.75 liters.
Popularity in Ukraine
Mandarins have been and remain an important attribute of New Year celebrations in Ukraine. Before the large-scale war, their consumption was growing. The overall import of citrus fruits also increased: by more than 50% from 2016 to 2021. Of nearly 400,000 tons of imported fruits in 2021, 43% (over 120,000 tons worth almost 120 million dollars) were mandarins.
The majority of mandarins imported into Ukraine came from Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Italy, Greece, and Spain. The last three countries are considered the most expensive segment.
5 In 2022, Ukraine reduced imports of fruits and nuts by 21%